Allegations surrounding the Red Bull Racing boss have circulated for over a week, giving rise to speculation in the absence of fact.
We know Red Bull is taking the matter extremely seriously. It made a public statement after news of the allegations entered the public domain last week.
We know Horner attended a meeting last Friday to discuss the matter. We know no outcome has yet been reached.
Beyond that, little is known about an affair that has turned Formula 1 into a global soap opera.
That’s unlikely to sit well with Red Bull. The Austrian drinks company holds itself to high standards and has similar expectations of those who represent it.
Unsurprisingly, suggestions of impropriety against Horner are being thoroughly investigated.
A Kings Counsel has been employed to arbitrate the matter and by rights should be unbiased and offer confidence to all involved that the correct outcome will be found.
What that outcome is remains unknown, though few believe Horner will escape with his job.
Throughout, the 50-year-old has remained active as team principal of Red Bull Racing despite growing calls for his resignation.
Among that choir is former F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone and the sport’s current boss, Stefano Domenicali.
The latter is holding the reins on behalf of Liberty Media, which owns the commercial rights to F1.
As a publicly listed company, it has an obligation to its shareholders and obligations in line with being traded on the US Stock Exchange.
Given the publicity surrounding Horner’s current predicament, there is potential for broad reputational damage to Horner as an individual, Red Bull Racing and, more broadly, Formula 1.
Hence, it is no surprise that there are reports that Domenicali has called Mark Mateschitz, son of Red Bull patriarch Dietrich, to request Horner’s departure.
It’s a reasonable request from a business that is commercially linked with Red Bull Racing as it looks to protect its investment.
However, it must be careful of its own skeletons.
Formula 1 employs Pat Symonds as its chief technical officer and Flavio Briatore as an advisor (though not in an official capacity).
Both men, who’ve enjoyed colourful lives in the sport, were key players in the 2008 Crashgate scandal at the Singapore Grand Prix, where Nelson Piquet was instructed to crash his Renault deliberately.
Symonds and Briatore were handed lifetime bans from motorsport by the FIA but had those repealed by a French court.
The FIA subsequently abandoned an appeal and waived its rights to new proceedings, stating it preferred not to continue a dispute prejudicial to the interests of motorsport.
And so both Symonds and Briatore have since returned to the F1 paddock and are consultants of the commercial rights holder.
For Liberty Media to draw a line in the sand with Horner, it must be conscious of exactly where it is drawn.
Of course, neither Formula 1 nor Liberty Media have made a comment publicly, and nor should they.
A statement from Red Bull remains the only official word on the matter, along with reports of a terse denial from Horner.
In the vacuum, speculation has been rampant and it is that which could ultimately prove his downfall, regardless of the outcome of arbitration.
It’s been suggested that Horner’s resignation was expected in Milton Keynes before the news broke.
But he has dug in. The Englishman is a fighter and has seen off challenges in the past.
In 2022, he faced the media after Red Bull Racing was found to have breached the cost cap in 2021 and remained stoic in the chaos that ensued – much of it whipped up by those with an axe to grind.
That he has stood firm in this instance, therefore, comes as no surprise, despite external (and apparent internal) pressure continuing to build.
Unfortunately for all involved, the matter is playing out in the public eye, even if nobody is officially saying anything.
There has been talk of tension within the halls of Milton Keynes for some time, and allegiances thought to be unshakeable becoming increasingly distant or, at the very least, reluctant to stand with Horner.
There will already be a lasting reputational impact, though quantifying that in relation to Red Bull is difficult as it is not a publicly listed company.
Formula 1 is, and its share price rose sharply on February 12, having been on a gradual upward trend for the week prior.
That will not all be a result of the Horner ordeal, of course.
Lewis Hamilton has done his bit with his move to Ferrari, as have the teams with new car launches. The addition of Madrid sparked a rise in the share price, too.
There is much happening in F1 to stimulate the market, aside from Horner, though investors may be energised by his potential departure from Red Bull Racing following the most dominant world championship-winning campaign ever witnessed.
The true impact of the current saga will only be revealed later, once Horner’s fate is known.
Even so, regardless of the outcome of the current proceedings against him, one must question whether his position as team principal of Red Bull Racing is tenable.
Has this saga damaged his standing within the paddock and as the leader of an army of staff such that he cannot perform his duties effectively? Will sponsors be as eager to engage with the team and its figurehead?
Horner is one of the most successful men in Formula 1 history and his departure would be a significant loss to the sport and Red Bull Racing.
However, if he has crossed the line, his success cannot and should not save him.
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